OPEN-SOURCE FORCE POSTURE MONITOR
Military Watch flags where force posture, shipping pressure and escalation signals look like something may be brewing.
Thermis cross-checks global conflict scores, maritime pressure, supply-chain risk, energy shock signals and live headlines to surface theaters where open-source indicators are clustering abnormally.
This is an early-warning posture model, not a claim of full military visibility. It is designed to catch brewing patterns sooner by combining observable signals that usually rise together before escalation becomes obvious.
ACTIVE ALERT ZONES
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Zones currently scoring elevated or above across combined risk signals.
HIGHEST ALERT RIGHT NOW
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SCORE SCALE
CRITICAL
80–100
ELEVATED
65–80
WATCH CLOSELY
50–65
MONITORING
35–50
QUIET
0–35
GLOBAL HEAT MAP
GLOBAL ALERT ZONES
Select a zone to open its side panel briefing, movement detail and OSINT context. The cards stay as the shortlist, not the full story.
EUROPE
LOADING
Eastern Europe
NATO / Russian force posture
MIDDLE EAST
LOADING
Middle East
Regional escalation / force projection
AFRICA / MENA
LOADING
Red Sea / Horn of Africa
Shipping security / expeditionary posture
ASIA PACIFIC
LOADING
Taiwan Strait
Air / naval signaling
ASIA PACIFIC
LOADING
South China Sea
Maritime access pressure
ASIA PACIFIC
LOADING
Korean Peninsula
Missile and deterrence posture
NORTH ATLANTIC
LOADING
Arctic / North Atlantic
Long-range patrol / submarine posture
AFRICA
LOADING
Sahel / West Africa
Instability / security operations
AMERICAS
LOADING
Latin America / Caribbean
Internal security / maritime disruption
GLOBAL ASSET PRESSURE
🛩️ Tankers / ISR Aircraft
AIR · WATCH CLOSELY
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✈️ Strategic Bomber Posture
AIR · WATCH CLOSELY
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🚢 Carrier Group Pressure
NAVAL · WATCH CLOSELY
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⚓ Destroyer / Escort Screen
NAVAL · WATCH CLOSELY
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🛟 Amphibious Lift Risk
NAVAL · WATCH CLOSELY
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ZONE SCORE HISTORY
HOW THIS WORKS
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Cross-checks conflict, energy, shipping, cyber and strategic posture signals already tracked by Thermis.
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Adds weighted Telegram OSINT as an early signal layer, but only one part of the model.
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Surfaces zones where those signals are clustering unusually hard at the same time.
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Uses headlines as confirmation pressure, not as a single-source trigger.
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Flags likely building situations for monitoring rather than claiming certain intent.
ACTIVE CONFLICTS MONITOR
GDELT NEWS INTELLIGENCE · ACTIVITY PROXY · UPDATED DAILY
10 ACTIVE CONFLICTS TRACKED
Russia–Ukraine War
Eastern Europe · DAY 1,525 · 4Y 2M
Armed Forces of Russia vs Armed Forces of Ukraine
STABLE →
HIGH
RECENT ACTIVITY (30 DAYS)
ACTIVITY DATA SYNCS DAILY
Israel–Gaza War
Middle East · DAY 935 · 2Y 6M
Israel Defense Forces vs Hamas / Palestinian Islamic Jihad
STABLE →
CRITICAL
RECENT ACTIVITY (30 DAYS)
ACTIVITY DATA SYNCS DAILY
Sudan Civil War
Northeast Africa · DAY 1,110 · 3Y 0M
Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) vs Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
STABLE →
HIGH
RECENT ACTIVITY (30 DAYS)
ACTIVITY DATA SYNCS DAILY
Myanmar Civil War
Southeast Asia · DAY 1,913 · 5Y 2M
Military Junta (SAC) vs People's Defence Force / Ethnic Armies
STABLE →
HIGH
RECENT ACTIVITY (30 DAYS)
ACTIVITY DATA SYNCS DAILY
DRC Conflict
Central Africa · DAY 5,232 · 14Y 4M
DRC Armed Forces (FARDC) vs M23 / Rwanda (RDF)
STABLE →
HIGH
RECENT ACTIVITY (30 DAYS)
ACTIVITY DATA SYNCS DAILY
Sahel Insurgency
West Africa · DAY 5,216 · 14Y 3M
JNIM / Islamic State Sahel vs AES Juntas / Wagner / AFRI-CORPS
STABLE →
ELEVATED
RECENT ACTIVITY (30 DAYS)
ACTIVITY DATA SYNCS DAILY
Ethiopia Conflicts
East Africa · DAY 2,003 · 5Y 5M
Ethiopian National Defence Force vs Fano / TPLF remnants / OLA
STABLE →
ELEVATED
RECENT ACTIVITY (30 DAYS)
ACTIVITY DATA SYNCS DAILY
Somalia–Al Shabaab
East Africa · DAY 7,268 · 19Y 11M
Al Shabaab vs Somali National Army / ATMIS
STABLE →
ELEVATED
RECENT ACTIVITY (30 DAYS)
ACTIVITY DATA SYNCS DAILY
Israel–Iran Direct War
Middle East · DAY 758 · 2Y 0M
Israel Defense Forces / US CENTCOM vs Islamic Republic of Iran / IRGC
STABLE →
CRITICAL
RECENT ACTIVITY (30 DAYS)
ACTIVITY DATA SYNCS DAILY
Haiti Gang War
Caribbean · DAY 1,757 · 4Y 9M
Viv Ansanm Gang Coalition vs Haitian National Police / MMAS
STABLE →
ELEVATED
RECENT ACTIVITY (30 DAYS)
ACTIVITY DATA SYNCS DAILY
MILITARY WATCH · FULL WORLD
OPEN-SOURCE POSTURE MODEL
USE AS EARLY WARNING, NOT FINAL CONFIRMATION